Memory [proxy] — FIRM · rose +2.4% · DDR5 16Gb spot $47.80

No new monthly revenue print has arrived; the NT$416.98B baseline and its +1.5% MoM delta carry forward unchanged. TSMC (TSM) retains sole leading-edge foundry position at N2/N3 with wafer ASP rising +3–5% into 2026, ASML (ASML) remains the hard tool chokepoint at 18–24 months order-to-delivery, and Samsung (005930.KS) second-source qualification remains a year-plus out. The 120-day propagation lag maps this foundry load level into GPU rental pricing in Q3–Q4 2025; next actionable delta requires a new monthly print.

CoWoS allocation and ABF substrate pricing remain uninstrumented — the #1 structural gap in this table — and no new information has arrived to update the prior. NVIDIA's (NVDA) roughly two-thirds hold on CoWoS capacity expanding from ~35K wpm toward ~130–150K wpm by end-2026 and Ajinomoto's (2802.T) 30% ABF price hike effective Q3 2026 are unchanged priors. Acute gating pressure at this node will surface first as a downstream symptom in Compute Supply rental pricing on a ~90-day lag.

DDR5 16Gb spot has extended its climb a further +0.03 to $47.80 today, a +2.4% advance that marks a deceleration in session-over-session velocity from yesterday's +$0.70 jump but lands on top of what is now a confirmed multi-session acceleration from $46.67 — the directional conviction is unbroken even as the pace tempers. The structural force driving it is tightening rather than easing: SK Hynix (000660.KS) is migrating DRAM capacity upstack into HBM4 Vera Rubin allocation — roughly two-thirds share at +50% ASP versus HBM3E — and that displacement is actively crowding out conventional DRAM supply relief, which is now printing as spot price elevation across consecutive sessions without reversal. The equity proxy, now at -16.8% on a 7-day basis, has widened its discount slightly from yesterday's -16.3%: Micron (MU) and SK Hynix (000660.KS) equity softness continues to reflect HBM mix-shift margin pressure and allocation concentration risk rather than demand-side deterioration — the divergence between rising spot and falling equities is a structural signal, not a contradiction, and it is now deepening. What has changed from yesterday is not the direction but the duration confirmation: two consecutive sessions at or near the velocity of yesterday's +$0.70 print, against a fab-build cycle of 18–24 months that forecloses any supply-side correction on a useful horizon, shifts the probability weight on the 2026 sold-out condition from prior to near-certainty. The 2028 oversupply thesis remains the earliest bull-case expiry; nothing in today's print narrows that horizon. At a ~90-day propagation lag, a spot series that is sustaining rather than retracing its acceleration maps to tightening GPU rental availability entering Q3 2025 with greater conviction than the prior session implied — hyperscalers, enterprise tenants, and managed-service resellers building infrastructure cost models against this stack face a memory-cost floor that has now risen across enough consecutive sessions to constitute a structural step-change rather than a transient spike.

FERC Order 2023 compliance under MISO and PJM continues accelerating the culling of non-viable interconnection applications; the queue fell a further -3.1% to 1,743.97 GW today, a moderation in the rate of decline from yesterday's -4.6% but a fifth consecutive session of contraction — the cumulative drawdown now constitutes a structural reduction in the speculative buffer, not noise. Deceleration in the rate of contraction is not reversal; the pipeline of viable projects competing for the same grid allocation as fab-plus-datacentre load remains smaller and more creditworthy, making access competition more acute in key clusters. At a ~180-day lag, this queue position maps to datacentre capacity availability in H1 2026; Equinix (EQIX), Digital Realty (DLR), and Vertiv (VRT) are building into a pipeline whose speculative cushion has now been drawn down across five consecutive sessions.

Optical-interconnect equities have moved from approximately -12.0% yesterday to -11.4% on a 7-day basis today — a marginal further compression of roughly 0.6 percentage points, a near-flat session after yesterday's larger 6-point partial recovery. The gap condition is unchanged: no supply-chain instrument distinguishes a hyperscaler demand-signal revision from company-level margin or order deterioration in Coherent (COHR) or Lumentum (LITE), so no forced buyer verb is warranted. The equity series has stabilized but not recovered; monitoring for directional resolution continues.

GAP-H100 posted list holds at $2.08/hr — delta from yesterday is effectively zero, and that stillness remains a structural artifact of the posted-list composite, not a market signal. The delta that matters is arriving from upstream: DDR5 spot has now closed at $47.80 across a multi-session acceleration, the demand equity proxy has added a further +2.2% on the 7-day basis, and the power interconnection queue has contracted for a fifth consecutive session, further compressing the speculative buffer feeding H1 2026 datacentre capacity. Cleared OCPI at $2.52/hr against the stationary GAP at $2.08/hr yields a Grid Basis of +$0.44/hr — widening by +$0.04 from yesterday's +$0.40/hr — with the moving leg remaining OCPI rather than the posted list; hyperscalers, large enterprise tenants, and managed-service resellers benchmarking against cleared pricing are navigating a stack where memory tightening is sustained, power pipeline speculative buffer is further reduced, and the cleared-versus-posted divergence is now wider than yesterday.

Hyperscaler capex commitment sustaining elevated infrastructure spend is the structural condition; the 7-day equity proxy rising +2.2% today — a step down in velocity from yesterday's +2.87% but holding firmly positive and extending the directional run rather than retracing it — confirms that markets continue pricing demand durability rather than initiating a plateau. The delta from yesterday is a velocity moderation, not a reversal: Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon (AMZN), Meta (META), and Oracle (ORCL) sustaining coordinated multi-session equity advances signals that hyperscaler capex waves are pulling chip and infrastructure orders forward with durable rather than impulsive conviction. At a ~7-day propagation lag, this demand-proxy trajectory arrives into a compute stack where every instrumented upstream node is simultaneously tightening — memory spot sustained across five sessions, power pipeline contracting for a fifth consecutive session, cleared rental pricing widening its basis against the posted list. Agentic workloads multiplying effective worker population remain the structural tightener underneath the equity signal; efficiency gains in tokens-per-dollar are the only structural relief valve, and no current instrument reading indicates that valve is opening at a rate sufficient to offset the demand trajectory this proxy is sustaining.