Published 05:30 AEST · Before US Open · Graph as of 2 July 2026Pipeline 05:30 AESTVol. I  No. 66
The Grid
Compute Supply Chain Intelligence · Daily Operational Telemetry
thegridco.ai
EST. 2026 · SYDNEY
Reference Map

Compute Supply Chain

What an AI accelerator is made of — and where The Grid can see supply-chain pressure. Every leading-edge accelerator shares the same upstream chokepoints: one foundry, one lithography supplier, one packaging bottleneck, three memory makers. Vendor substitution at the GPU level does not relieve constraints upstream of the fork.

This map shows the dependency structure and marks honestly what we measure and what we cannot. The gaps are the finding — they show where the surprises come from.

3 instrumented·6 proxy·39 gap
Click any node for detail.
01Fabrication[proxy]revenue-level proxy — no fab-allocation or utilization visibility
└─ Logic Die (TSMC N4/N2)[proxy]TSMC the only foundry making 3nm/2nm at scale
├─ Foundry Capex & Fab Construction[proxy]TSMC dominant; ASML sole litho supplier
│ 120d ──▸ GPU / AI Accelerator
└─ Wafer Fab Process[gap]
├─ Gallium / Germanium[gap]China ~80-98% of refined Ga/Ge
├─ Specialized Labour[gap]US shortfall up to 300K; overseas-fab ramps delayed by staffing
├─ EUV Lithography (ASML)[gap]ASML 100% of EUV (low- and high-NA)
├─ Silicon Wafers[gap]Shin-Etsu + SUMCO (Japan) >50% combined; top-5 ~85%
│ └─ High-Purity Quartz (Spruce Pine)[gap]Spruce Pine, NC ~80% of world HPQ; Sibelco >90% of top-grade 4N8+
├─ Photoresist (EUV-grade)[gap]Japan-concentrated; JSR >22% share, owns Inpria/metal-oxide-resist leader
├─ Specialty Process Gases[gap]China ~14M m3/yr installed neon, +20% YoY
└─ Photomask Blanks[gap]Duopoly Hoya + AGC for blanks; EUV pellicles even thinner-sourced
02Packaging & Assembly[gap]no direct CoWoS allocation or packaging-capacity series
└─ Advanced Packaging (CoWoS)[gap]TSMC dominant; NVIDIA secured ~60% of 2026 CoWoS allocation
90d ──▸ GPU / AI Accelerator
├─ ABF Substrate (Ajinomoto)[gap]Ajinomoto >95% of ABF film
├─ Silicon Interposer[gap]TSMC dominant; interposer capacity is a CoWoS sub-bottleneck
├─ Thermal Compression Bonding (TCB)[gap]Besi ~50%+ of advanced TCB equipment market
└─ Test & Known-Good-Die (KGD)[gap]Advantest + Teradyne ~80% of advanced ATE
03Memory[proxy]DDR5 spot instrumented; HBM not instrumented (equity + DDR5 derivative only)
└─ HBM Memory Stack[proxy]SK Hynix ~50-62%, Samsung ~25-40%, Micron ~5-20%
└─ Commodity DRAM (DDR5)[instrumented]Three-firm oligopoly (same as HBM)
90d ──▸ GPU / AI Accelerator
04Power & Cooling[proxy]forward pipeline only — no current power cost/availability
└─ Datacenter Facility[gap]Top-5 DC operators + hyperscaler self-builds
180d ──▸ Compute (root)
├─ Grid Interconnection & Power Delivery[proxy]Fragmented across regional grid operators; queue governance varies by jurisdiction
│ └─ Large Power Transformers & Switchgear[gap]Global oligopoly; US domestic capacity severely short
├─ Cooling Systems[gap]Vertiv + Schneider dominate traditional; CoolIT leads direct-to-chip liquid
│ └─ Water Supply[gap]Municipal/regional water authorities; no market concentration
├─ Power Generation & Procurement[gap]GE Vernova + Siemens Energy dominate heavy-frame gas turbines
└─ Land, Permitting & Siting[gap]Fragmented; hyperscalers increasingly self-develop to bypass DC REIT queues
05Networking & Interconnect[gap]equity colour only — no supply-chain instrument
└─ Networking & Interconnect[gap]NVIDIA dominant for AI-specific interconnect; Broadcom + Arista for Ethernet fabric
├─ High-Speed Connectors[gap]Amphenol + TE ~50%+ of high-speed datacenter connectors
├─ Fiber & Copper Cabling[gap]Corning dominant in fiber; connector market more fragmented
├─ Optical Transceivers (800G/1.6T)[gap]Coherent + Innolight ~50%+ of 800G; Chinese suppliers (Eoptolink) rising
│ └─ Laser Chips & InP Wafers[gap]AXT + JX Nippon + InPact cover most InP wafer supply
└─ Switch Silicon / NIC ASICs[gap]Broadcom ~70%+ of merchant Ethernet switch silicon
06Compute Supply[instrumented]GPU rental pricing (GAP-H100, 2-provider panel) + OCPI + incidents
└─ Compute (root)[gap]
└─ GPU / AI Accelerator[instrumented]NVIDIA dominant in merchant AI accelerators
└─ Board & System Integration[gap]Supermicro dominant in AI GPU servers; Quanta/Foxconn for hyperscaler custom
├─ High-Bandwidth Interconnect (NVLink / PCIe)[gap]Astera Labs dominant in CXL/PCIe retimers; NVLink copper assemblies concentrated
└─ Power Management (PMICs / VRMs)[gap]Monolithic Power Systems dominant for GPU VRMs; Renesas + Infineon for server power
07Demand & Deployment[proxy]token pricing + hyperscaler capex — no direct deployment series
├─ Foundation Labs[gap]Top-5 labs consume ~60-70% of leading-edge training GPU-hours
│ ├─ Frontier Inference[proxy]
│ └─ Training Compute[gap]
├─ Hyperscalers / Clouds[gap]
│ ├─ Cloud GPU-as-a-Service[instrumented]
│ ├─ Datacenter Buildout Capex[proxy]
│ └─ Custom Silicon Programs[gap]
├─ Enterprises[gap]
├─ Sovereigns[gap]
│ ├─ Defense & Intelligence[gap]
│ └─ National AI Programs[gap]
└─ Agentic Workloads[gap]
7d ──▸ Compute (root)
Coverage and dependency structure from the Grid graph store (dependency-map Stages 1-2). All seven segments recursed to natural floor. Coverage tags: [instrumented]direct daily series · [proxy]adjacent stand-in · [gap] structure mapped, no live data.