Specification · Class 3 · indicator — a constructed measure that is not a price
GCCX divergence · GCCX vs physical divergence
GCCX 30-day % change minus the physical composite's 30-day % change, where the physical composite is the equal-weight mean of the live legs: DDR5 16Gb chip spot (30d change) and GAP-H100 spot (30d matched-pair change, chain-linked across declared methodology breaks). Positive = the tape running ahead of the physical layer. Two canonical readings are stated on the surface: physical tight + equity extended → crowded; equity breaking + physical intact → technical correction, not thesis break.
series id gccx_divergence · methodology v1.1 · unit pct_points
Ⅰ · Class and status
Part B class · print status · latest print of recordClass 3 · indicatorPrinting
Class — and why
A relationship between the tape and the physical layer, in percentage points. The project's most differentiated series; an indicator, never a price.
Latest print of record · read from storage, not recomputed
| Series id | Registry label | Methodology | Latest print | Value | Note |
|---|
| gccx_divergence | GCCX vs physical divergence | v1.1 | 2026-09-09 | -3.79 pts | |
Ⅱ · Specification
A4 field template · honest current state · n/a fields shown, not hidden| Code | GCCX divergenceseries id gccx_divergence |
| Construction | GCCX 30d % − physical 30d %physical = mean of the live legs; if one leg is thin the other carries alone and the detail records which legs were live; if both are thin, or no GCCX print exists within 3 days of t−30, the date is skipped |
| Legs | gccx · velocity.dram_spot_change(t, 30) · velocity.gpu_rental_change_chainlinked(t, 30) |
| Currency / unit | Percentage points |
| Assessment close | 18:30 UTC — the scheduled daily cycle anchor |
| Submission cut-off | n/a |
| Publication time | With the daily print (masthead: 04:30 AEST) — on the briefing, /instruments, the daily report, /api/print/<date> (permanent) and MCP. |
| Data hierarchy applied | Inherits GCCX (equity closes) and the physical legs (TrendForce DRAM spot; tier-2 GAP panel). |
| Accelerator class / contract basis / term / region | n/a — relationship indicator |
Ⅲ · Normalisation and construction rules
the named adjustments, in order- Chain-linking (v1.1) — the GAP leg's 30d change is growth to a declared break on the pre-break panel times growth from the break on the post-break panel, so a declared panel re-base (GAP v3, 2026-07-24) drops out of the change while real post-break moves remain. Declared breaks: data/methodology_breaks.json.
- Both 30d changes are like-for-like (matched pairs / single clean series) — one shared velocity module per runtime.
Ⅳ · Minimum observations and withholding
below which the print is flagged · below which it is not publishedA GCCX print within 3 days of t−30 and at least one live physical leg; otherwise the date is skipped, never interpolated.
Ⅴ · Disclosures
verbatim from the derived-series registry · the same string every surface carriesNo registry disclosure attaches to this code today.
Ⅵ · Revision history
dated changelog for this code · never rewritten| Date | Version | Change | Reference |
|---|
| 2026-07-24 | v1.0 | First computed with GCCX. | — |
| 2026-08-05 | v1.1 | GAP leg chain-linked across declared methodology breaks (founder ruling (a)). v1.0 let matched pairs straddle the 2026-07-24 re-base; the 2026-07-25 → 08-04 prints were corrected on the corrections rail — two values restated (07-30, 07-31), the rest re-versioned unchanged, pre-correction values archived. | docs/corrections/2026-08-05-divergence-rebase-contamination.md |
Ⅶ · Downstream, surfaces, notices, sources
where it flows · where it shows · what governs itDownstream series
None.
Surfaces
- /instruments §Ⅱ
- /api/print
- /api/mcp get_series
Notices that govern this code
No methodology change notice attaches to this code.
Sources of record
scripts/compute_gccx.pyscripts/velocity.py (gpu_rental_change_chainlinked)data/methodology_breaks.json
This page renders the method of record for GCCX divergence; it does not define it. Printed values are never rewritten — a change in method is announced by notice before it affects a print (publish-before-effect); a correction restates only what the day’s own information set supported. Permanent print URLs: /api/print/<date>.