Proposed methodology change — minimum-observation rule for GAP-H100 spot

Status: DECIDED — adopted unmodified by founder ruling 2026-08-16; decision notice 2026-08-16-gap-minimum-observation-decision.md (notice period 2026-08-17 → 2026-08-21, binds from the 2026-08-22 print; build follows the notice period). This document is the proposal stage as written; the text below is unchanged. Proposal date: 2026-08-14 (UTC) Instrument: gap_h100_spot Companion to: 2026-08-14-instrument-actions.md §2 (reclassification)

The rule

The daily GAP-H100 spot print is withheld — not published — when either condition holds at print time:

1. Panel floor: fewer than two contributing providers on the day (the Baltic Asia-variant publication floor the project has adopted, spec Part C4); or
2. All-static panel: every contributing provider is static by the unchanged-days measure already computed daily in gap_h100_panel_health() — i.e. every contributor's price has been unchanged for ≥ STALE_PROVIDER_DAYS (currently 7) consecutive days.

Withheld is disclosed, never silent. A withheld day produces an explicit withheld record — surfaced on the briefing, /instruments, and the API as "WITHHELD — <reason>" with the same provenance stamp a published print would carry (panel size, contributors, unchanged-days). Series continuity means the record is unbroken: every calendar day has either a value or a dated, reasoned withholding. A gap in values is information; a silent gap is not.

What this would have done on the existing record

Applied to the 20 v3 prints to date: the four single-provider days (2026-08-02, 08-03, 08-05, 08-12) would have printed as WITHHELD — panel below two contributors rather than as $2.69 levels. Those four prints account for three of the six composition-driven transitions (the other three are the matching re-entries) in the variance decomposition. The all-static condition has not yet triggered on a two-provider day (Vast.ai moves), but it is precisely the condition the reserved leg sat in for its entire life — the rule exists so that failure mode withholds instead of printing a frozen number.

Mechanism (for the decision stage; not built)

• Everything needed is already computed: gap_h100_panel_health() returns provider count and per-provider unchanged-days daily, and the provenance stamp (notice 2026-08-14 §3) already carries them on every print.
• The withheld record needs a representation decision: a derived_series row with a null value and a withheld detail, versus a sibling record. That choice is part of the decision notice, not this proposal.
• write_series() gains a withholding path only after adoption; suspension precedent (registry-level gate + generation-level gate) applies.

Notice process

This is a methodology change to when a print appears; it takes its own period. Proposed: founder decision published as the decision notice, then five business days before the rule binds, on the same negligible-impact reasoning as notice 2026-08-14 §4 (zero external references; the rule only withholds prints that would otherwise carry disclosed-defective information). Until adopted, prints continue under the current method with the provenance stamp and indicator classification disclosing the condition.