Methodology change notice — instrument actions of 2026-08-14
Notice date: 2026-08-14 (UTC; all dates in this notice are UTC) Class: methodology change (suspension · reclassification). Not a correction — see §5. Actions:
gap_h100_reserved_1y(GAP-H100-R1Y) — suspended, effective 2026-08-22 (final prints 2026-08-21)gts_1y(GTS-1Y) — suspended, effective 2026-08-22 (final prints 2026-08-21)gap_h100_spot(GAP-H100 spot) — reclassified assessment → indicator, effective with this notice; printing continues unbroken- A minimum-observation rule for GAP-H100 spot is proposed under its own notice:
2026-08-14-gap-minimum-observation-proposal.md
Defect class, named: static-contributor / presence-tested freshness — a
data source that re-publishes an unchanged price daily satisfies every
row-presence check while contributing no market information. Two instruments
failed on it outright (actions 1–2); the flagship spot series carries it as
the anchor of a two-contributor panel (action 3). The codebase-wide audit of
this class is on record (docs/session-outputs/2026-08-15-staleness-audit.md).
1. Suspension of GAP-H100-R1Y and GTS-1Y
Verified against the full stored history:
- GAP-H100-R1Y has zero variance. All 20 prints since inception (2026-07-24 → 2026-08-13) carry the identical value, $6.4645 (population σ = 0). The reserved panel — near-static Azure retail plus a Lambda fallback, both individually unchanged across their entire history — does not move.
- GTS-1Y is therefore not a term premium. Defined as reserved-1Y minus spot, with a constant reserved leg it reduces to (6.4645 − GAP): the spot series inverted and shifted. Correlation with the spot leg across every print: −0.999999983 (−1.0 to storage rounding; identity residual ≤ $0.00005). Its standard deviation (0.114348) is the spot leg's (0.114341) to the fourth decimal.
- The specification's defence — the level embeds a panel-class premium, the change is the signal — fails on this data: the change is entirely the spot leg's change, sign-flipped.
Final prints are dated 2026-08-21; from 2026-08-22 neither series receives new values. Published history is not removed, revised, or retroactively annotated: each value stands as published on the information set of its day.
2. Reclassification of GAP-H100 spot: assessment → indicator
Effective with this notice, gap_h100_spot moves from Class 1 (assessment)
to Class 3 (indicator) under the assessment-specification Part B taxonomy.
The series keeps printing; the record is unbroken. Reason of record, with
the numbers:
- The panel holds two nominal contributors. One (RunPod) has printed the identical value ($2.69) on all 93 days of its stored history — it is a frozen anchor, not a contributor. Two contributing is not one contributing plus one static.
- Variance decomposition across all 20 v3 prints
(
docs/session-outputs/2026-08-15-gap-variance-decomposition.md): 50.3% of realised variance is panel composition, not price. Of 19 day-over-day transitions, 13 are pure price and 6 are pure composition — every composition-affected transition was 100% composition (the common panel reduces to the static provider; counterfactual delta 0.0000). The four single-provider prints (08-02, 08-03, 08-05, 08-12) equal the static provider's posted price. - The remaining 49.7% of variance is single-sourced (Vast.ai), attenuated ×0.5 by pooling against the frozen anchor.
- The panel thresholds this project has adopted (spec Part C4, from the Baltic's published rules) do not create an index below five panellists (three in the Asia variant) and do not publish below four (two in Asia). A panel of one moving contributor sits below every variant of the floor.
Path back, stated explicitly: GAP-H100 spot returns to assessment class when the panel carries at least two independently moving contributors — contributors whose prices change on independent cycles, not merely contributors whose rows arrive. Reinstatement is announced by notice before the class label changes back.
Surface effect: the indicator class and reclassification disclosure ride
with the series in the derived-series registry (both runtimes), on
/instruments §Ⅰ, and in the MCP response. Nothing about the printed values
changes.
3. Provenance stamp (disclosure — no notice period, effective on publication)
Per spec A5 / IOSCO PRA 2.3, every GAP-H100 spot print now carries, with the value on the briefing, in the daily report, and in the API response: panel size, contributing providers with each provider's unchanged-days, transaction count (currently 0), data tier (tier-2 bookable asks), and judgment applied (none — arithmetic). The stamp is written into the print of record's detail at print time; surfaces read it from there and never recompute it.
4. Notice period, and the deviation it represents
Suspensions (§1) run five business days (2026-08-17 → 2026-08-21),
against the specification's three-month negligible-impact cessation
guidance (Part D3 §5). The deviation is deliberate and stated: the cessation
windows protect parties who reference an assessment in contracts or
settlement. No contract, derivative, or forward-claims ledger entry
references any affected series (verified: zero forward_claims rows score
against them), and The Grid has zero external subscribers. Holding
disclosed-defective instruments in print for three months would prioritise
procedure over honesty; five business days preserves publish-before-effect
(ADR-003 §2). The reclassification (§2) and provenance stamp (§3) add
information without changing any printed value and take effect with
publication.
5. Why these are methodology changes, not corrections
Per Part D1: a correction restates what a value should have been on the
information set of its day. Every published value of all three series was
computed correctly per the stated method — the methods are defective
(§1) or under-classed (§2). Nothing is restated; the history stands.
Separately, one editorial narration (the 2026-08-07 daily's "first
repricing" claim) is a correction — a misapplication of stated
methodology in narration — and is issued on the corrections rail:
docs/corrections/2026-08-14-gap-2026-08-07-composition-narration.md.
6. Downstream effects
| Surface / series | Effect |
|---|---|
rwi_s_selfhost_reserved, rwi_l_selfhost_reserved | Cease printing from 2026-08-22 — their input is the suspended reserved leg. |
rwi_s_index, rwi_l_index | Unaffected — the cheapest path was the open-API leg on all 20 prints of both; the reserved leg never set an index value. |
Watch condition id 6 (gts_1y_delta, active) | Inert at suspension — no new prints to evaluate. Founder action: deactivate or re-point. |
| Grid Basis, GCCX divergence (GAP leg) | Continue — they read gap_h100_spot, which keeps printing. Both are already Class 2/3 surfaces and inherit the reclassification's caveats via the GAP disclosure. |
/instruments §Ⅰ, / term-structure module, /providers, /start, MCP | Historical series display with disclosures riding alongside; suspended charts stop advancing at the final print; GAP continues with indicator class + provenance stamp. |
7. Reinstatement paths
- Reserved leg / GTS: returns only as a new methodology version with its own published specification — a reserved panel that actually moves (multiple committed-price sources on independent refresh cycles) and a staleness rule that withholds rather than freezes.
- GAP-H100 spot to assessment class: §2's path back — ≥2 independently moving contributors — plus the minimum-observation rule if adopted.
8. Record
- Verification:
docs/session-outputs/2026-08-15-gts-suspension-and-moonshots-registration.md(suspension arithmetic) ·docs/session-outputs/2026-08-15-gap-variance-decomposition.md(reclassification numbers) ·docs/session-outputs/2026-08-15-staleness-audit.md(defect class, codebase-wide). - Enforcement: suspension gates in
scripts/compute_gap_print.py+scripts/compute_rwi.py;derived_series.write_series()refuses writes to suspended series (hard backstop). Reclassification + disclosures inscripts/derived_series.py↔dashboard/lib/derived-series.ts. Provenance:velocity.provenance_stamp()↔velocity.ts provenanceStamp().